EU-AU Knowledge Network

In the aftermath of the adoption of the landmark Paris Agreement on Climate Change, raising climate ambition has gained significant political salience. Modelled on a hybrid logic, the Paris Agreement is based on top-down global climate targets and bottom-up nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Yet there have emerged other developments that are significantly shaping climate action through transnational structural forces. Based on these developments, this seminar argues that we are now in the age of Climate Structural Adjustment Programs (CSAPs). Six particular forces underpinning the CSAPs are salient: emission reduction targets such as net zero; anti-fossil fuel norms shaping public opinion; divestment from fossil fuels; bans such as moratorium on coal mining and the proposed fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty; sanctions such as carbon border taxes; and climate conditionalities such as those linked to debt relief. It is therefore argued that these transnational structural forces mark a significant development of the international climate change regime. In conclusion, the seminar considers the strategic opportunities presented by the CSAPs to raise climate ambition, but also the attendant normative issues such as equity, justice and fairness. 

This seminar is co-convened by the Climate and Energy College and the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute. 

This event has been organised with the financial support of the European Union’s Partnership Instrument. The opinions expressed are the sole responsibility of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.

Key developments in understanding climate feedbacks and in quantifying the role of greenhouse gases and aerosol  on climate have helped the IPCC WGI report to make more robust climate projections. The seminar will discuss these developments including our understanding of possible tipping points and increased risks. It will also consider the implications for climate policy.

This event has been organised with the financial support of the European Union’s Partnership Instrument. The opinions expressed are the sole responsibility of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.

Abstract: The Physical Science (Working Group 1) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report was released on the 10th August 2021. This second of two seminars takes a closer look at two key areas in the report: future warming and remaining carbon budgets, presented by two authors that have been closely involved in this IPCC cycle. It builds on the broader overview provided by the first seminar. The seminar will present an assessment of future warming under a selection of different scenarios. We will discuss the assessments, their uncertainty and the methods used, including key methodological advancements compared to previous IPCC reports. To enhance the connection with other discussions on net zero, we will also place the scenarios considered in the context of other mitigation pathways from the scenario literature. We will also discuss new estimates of our remaining carbon budget i.e. the total amount of carbon dioxide we can emit before we cross a given temperature threshold such as 1.5C or 2.0C. We compare the updated remaining carbon budget estimates with previous estimates from the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5C (SR1.5) and the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and dive into some of the implications of the probabilistic language used for reporting remaining carbon budgets. We also discuss the implications for policy, particularly when we must reach net zero emissions in order to remain within the budget. 

This event has been organised with the financial support of the European Union’s Partnership Instrument. The opinions expressed are the sole responsibility of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.

Abstract: The Physical Science (Working Group 1) contribution to the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report will be released on the 10th August 2021. This first of two seminars will provide an overview of some key results in the IPCC report, presented by two authors that have been closely involved in this IPCC cycle. The seminar will cover the new scenarios that underpin future projections, historical warming updates, the question around how these scenarios compare to 1.5C warming, a comparison of when peak warming levels could be reached under the low mitigation scenarios, the impact of COVID, techniques to provide assessed future temperature projections based on multiple lines of evidence, the usefulness of providing projections against warming levels, remaining carbon budgets in comparison to the SR.5 report, as well as the importance of CO2 versus other gases, both in terms of past and future warming as well as in terms of so-called metrics that compare unit emissions of different GHGs. The second seminar (24th August) will provide more technical detail on two key aspects, i.e. assessed future warming levels and remaining carbon budgets.

This event has been organised with the financial support of the European Union’s Partnership Instrument. The opinions expressed are the sole responsibility of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.

Falko Ueckerdt starts with structuring the current hydrogen debate (in particular in Germany and the EU). Then he goes through key techno-economic aspects that determine the role of hydrogen-based e-fuels, particularly compared to a direct electrification. This includes green hydrogen electrolysis expansion (available quantities), energy efficiencies, climate mitigation effectiveness, as well as direct and abatement costs. Falko briefly discusses blue hydrogen and other options of bridging the low mid-term availability of green hydrogen. In his conclusions he argues that societies' hydrogen expectations should be focused on no-regret sectors. Broadly betting on (future) hydrogen, while neglecting available direct electrification technologies (and domestic renewable expansion), risks further fossil fuel dependence (new lock-ins).

This event has been organised with the financial support of the European Union’s Partnership Instrument. The opinions expressed are the sole responsibility of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.