Facts4Paris: The later we start reducing, the steeper the decline to 2050.

Facts4Paris: The later we start reducing, the steeper the decline to 2050.

Cancun, INDCs and 2C scenarios

Our middle-of-the-range sum of INDCs gives an approximate figure of 55 Gt of emissions by 2030 (GWP AR4 metric). This is above 2020 emission projections for both the Copenhagen and Cancun pledges. It suggests that we are heading in the wrong direction. Global emissions need to come down, not increase further, if the world is to have a likely change of keeping warming within 2°C.

Looking at all IPCC AR5 scenarios for 2°C starting in either 2010, 2020 or 2030 there is a clear penalty for delayed mitigation action. As was found by IPCC, 2050 emissions levels for 2°C compatible scenarios are 40% to 70% below 2010 by 2050. Almost all scenarios pass through that range, regardless of whether the decline starts softly in 2010 or goes into free-fall from 2031. Combining the INDC quantifications with the 2°C scenarios leaves just one conclusion: to achieve 2°C INDCs need to be enhanced...Otherwise we need a miracle emissions-reduction solution from 2031.

Web tools and Projects we developed

  • Open-NEM

    The live tracker of the Australian electricity market.

  • Paris Equity Check

    This website is based on a Nature Climate Change study that compares Nationally Determined Contributions with equitable national emissions trajectories in line with the five categories of equity outlined by the IPCC.

  • liveMAGICC Climate Model

    Run one of the most popular reduced-complexity climate carbon cycle models online. Used by IPCC, UNEP GAP reports and numerous scientific publications.

  • NDC & INDC Factsheets

    Check out our analysis of all the post-2020 targets that countries announced under the Paris Agreement.